Turkey, under President Erdogan, views the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad not as a threat, but as an opportunity for influence in the region. Erdogan’s support for HTS has facilitated its governance in Idlib, allowing for significant Turkish involvement in Syrian affairs. However, the uncertain future presents risks of instability and extremist resurgence, necessitating careful navigation in Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria.

Amid the fallout from Syria’s civil war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s perspective diverges from that of other Middle Eastern leaders, who fret over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s potential demise. Erdogan recognizes a post-Assad Syria as an opportunity due to Turkey’s strong ties with the Islamist group controlling Damascus. The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a formerly al-Qaeda-affiliated group recognized as a terrorist organization, has been facilitated by Turkey’s indirect support. Turkish military presence in idlib has protected HTS from the Assad regime, allowing the group to govern unchallenged and gain local legitimacy through humanitarian aid and economic trade through the Turkish border.

Erdogan’s influence over HTS has been evident in maneuvering rebel strategies in Aleppo, suggesting his significant role in their military actions. The political landscape shifted as Assad’s regional support dwindled due to turmoil around Gaza and Russia’s distraction in Ukraine. This has empowered Erdogan to pursue an agenda to negotiate terms with the Assad regime, aiming to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees and stabilize Turkey’s domestic support.

Erdogan’s journey toward prominence in Syria faced initial challenges. Since 2011, Turkey’s unwavering support for anti-Assad factions led to a breakdown in relations with Middle Eastern autocrats, notably Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, tensions with the United States escalated following U.S. support for Kurdish forces that Turkey labels terrorist. Russia’s emergence as a critical ally complicated Ankara’s position, necessitating a reluctant partnership to counteract Assad’s resilient government.

With Assad’s exit, Turkey’s strategic standing has improved significantly, allowing Erdogan to potentially influence political dynamics in Syria and counterbalance Iranian and Russian interests. Assad’s removal could also facilitate Turkey’s relationships with other regional players and improve the prospects for managing a unified Syrian government conducive to refugee repatriation and reconstruction efforts.

However, the transition presents myriad risks, including the potential for extremist factions to undermine stability in Syria. The insurgents leading this change, particularly HTS, lack a concrete governing vision and could revert to oppressive rule, undermining the political integrity of the region. Moreover, the risk of ISIS re-emerging in the chaos could further complicate Turkey’s security concerns.

Erdogan must navigate a complex landscape, balancing the desires of new Syrian leaders with the expectations of international allies while addressing pressing domestic challenges stemming from the refugee crisis. Historical precedents from countries like Libya and Iraq illustrate the precarious nature of such transitions, suggesting that the future of Syria remains uncertain. This reality emphasizes Turkey’s pivotal role in shaping long-term outcomes as both a benefactor and a potential destabilizer in the region, leaving Erdogan with significant stakes in Syria’s turbulent political evolution.

Erdogan’s perspective on Syria is distinctly hopeful, viewing the potential end of Assad’s regime as an opportunity rather than a crisis. Turkey’s involvement has evolved significantly, from supporting various anti-Assad factions to establishing itself as a key player influencing the Syrian conflict. The dynamics changed with external pressures from the U.S., Russia, and regional developments, highlighting Turkey’s complex relationships with other powers in the Middle East. Turkey’s strategic operations in northern Syria and its interaction with various military factions position it uniquely in future negotiations in the region.

Turkey stands at a crossroads following Assad’s fall, possessing both opportunities and challenges in post-conflict Syria. Erdogan’s actions have set the stage for potential influence and collaboration in rebuilding Syria but are not without risks of instability and resurgence of extremist factions. As Turkey navigates the delicate balance of fostering a stable government while managing expectations from both domestic and international fronts, the future of its involvement in Syria remains uncertain, underscoring the country’s critical role in regional stability.

Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com

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