Rebels’ Offensive in Aleppo Disrupts Assad’s Control in Syrian Civil War
The recent rebel offensive in Aleppo has drastically shifted the balance of power in Syria’s civil war, challenging the longstanding narrative of President Assad’s control. By capitalizing on the distractions of Assad’s allies and years of military preparation, rebels have showcased their renewed strength, leading to significant territorial gains. The implications of this resurgence have broader consequences for the ongoing conflict and regional stability.
The recent offensive by Syrian rebels, which quickly drove regime forces from Aleppo, has revived perceptions of the ongoing civil war, contradicting the narrative of President Bashar al-Assad’s control. This surprise attack, which began on November 27, took advantage of key allies’ distractions, with Hezbollah preoccupied due to a ceasefire with Israel and Russia engaged in the Ukraine conflict. The sudden change in power dynamics revealed a significant weakness in Assad’s regime.
Years of preparation among the armed opposition contributed to this offensive, signaling an organized force ready to capitalize on the regime’s moment of vulnerability. Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, emphasizes that the regime’s loss of ground illustrates its reliance on foreign support from groups such as Hezbollah and Russian military aid, which are now stretched thin.
Unlike previous attempts, this new offensive has the potential for sustainable control over Aleppo, as the rebels now hold both urban and surrounding rural territories. The current scenario represents an escalated confrontation in a conflict that has claimed over 300,000 lives and led to millions of refugees, making it the most significant surge since the 2020 ceasefire in Idlib.
The operation, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has resulted in the capture of numerous regions around Aleppo. Reports from rebel fighters indicate enhanced military capabilities and strategic preparation over the past years, as they describe themselves as a well-organized army with special operations capabilities.
In response to the rebels’ successes, Russia and Iran are bolstering Assad’s forces to mount a counteroffensive, which includes airstrikes and troop reinforcements. However, the effectiveness of these efforts remains uncertain due to the diminished strength of Iranian-linked militias and the limited ground troop capabilities of Russia.
Turkey’s involvement has shifted, and it appears poised to support the rebels strategically. Stalled negotiations with Assad forced Ankara to explore military opposition as a means to influence the balance of power, preserving its interests in northern Syria and managing refugee returns from Turkey to Aleppo.
Amid this renewed conflict, the rebel factions express confidence in their momentum, seen as a victory against the Assad regime. They emphasize a sense of liberation and determination to advance their cause, continuing what they describe as a battle against tyranny that has plagued the region for over a decade.
The Syrian civil war, ongoing since 2011, has led to significant devastation, with over 300,000 fatalities and millions displaced. Initially spurred by anti-government protests, it quickly escalated into a complex conflict involving multiple external powers, including Russia and Iran supporting the Assad regime, while various rebel factions received varying degrees of support. Over time, the war highlighted the regional power struggles that continue to impact the political landscape, as evidenced by the recent resurgence of rebel forces in Aleppo.
The latest offensive by Syrian rebels against President Assad’s regime signifies a pivotal moment in the ongoing civil war, showcasing both the vulnerabilities of Assad’s forces and the strategic readiness of the opposition. This shift not only alters control of critical territories like Aleppo but also poses challenges for Assad’s foreign allies. As the conflict evolves, the ambitions of the armed opposition reveal a deep-seated resolve to reclaim their homeland from oppressive rule.
Original Source: www.csmonitor.com
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