Recent Territorial Gains Mark a Shift in Syria’s Ongoing Civil War
Syrian rebel forces have recently captured significant areas in northwest Syria from the government, including Aleppo and Hama, signaling a substantial shift in a civil war that has persisted since 2011. This offensive breaks a period of relative calm and reflects the complex interplay among various factions, including the Assad regime, the Islamic State, Kurdish-led forces, and Turkish military operations. The ongoing conflict continues to evolve, suggesting instability persists.
In an unexpected turn of events, Syrian rebel forces have successfully taken significant portions of Syria’s northwest region from the government, marking a resurgence in the long-standing civil war. After recently capturing critical assets including the city of Aleppo, military installations, and numerous settlements, the rebels achieved a notable victory by overrunning Hama, a city that had remained under government control throughout the conflict.
Following years of relative stasis since 2020, where the territorial distributions favored President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the dynamics have shifted once again. The conflict began in 2011 when Mr. al-Assad violently suppressed anti-government demonstrations, leading to the emergence of both extremist and moderate rebel factions, which at one point dominated much of the northwest and other key areas of Syria.
However, the rise of the Islamic State in 2014, coupled with Russian military interventions in support of Assad, severely curtailed the rebels’ territorial claims. By early 2023, remaining opposition forces found themselves confined to a dwindling region in the northwest until they initiated their recent offensive, upending the previous balance of power.
The Assad regime’s forces, bolstered by Iranian troops and Hezbollah fighters, have gradually reclaimed territory lost in earlier rebel offensives, including the recapture of Aleppo in 2016 through intense military campaigns. The Syrian military has made significant strides with Russian air support and continued efforts to regain control over contested regions, resulting in a recently stalled imposition of power in the northwestern area,
Throughout these years, the Islamic State expanded its influence, capitalizing on the uproar from the civil war. The group initially seized a vast territory spanning parts of both Syria and Iraq, only to be methodically diminished by an international coalition focused on its eradication. As of 2018, the Islamic State had largely retreated, retreating to small enclaves.
Paralleling this, Kurdish-led forces emerged as crucial allies for the United States in the battle against the Islamic State, establishing significant control in northeastern Syria post-conflict. However, with Turkish military incursions targeting Kurdish positions—whom Turkey perceives as affiliated with domestic insurgent movements—these forces sought refuge under Assad’s regime after the U.S. withdrawal in 2019. Currently, Kurdish groups retain much of the northeast, although their relationship with Syrian government forces illustrates the complex dynamics at play.
Turkey’s military interventions, aimed primarily at dispossessing Kurdish factions from northern Syrian territories, have solidified its influence over several border towns and villages. With a track record of three military operations since 2016, Turkey now administers this region directly, indicative of the protracted conflict’s broad ramifications.
Syria has been engulfed in a civil war since 2011, triggered by the brutal crackdowns on protests against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Over the years, various factions have emerged, creating a fraught landscape that has evolved significantly due to internal and external influences—including the formation of the Islamic State and foreign military interventions from Russia and Turkey. The majority of the conflict’s changes in territorial control have shifted back and forth between opposing forces, largely dependent on military strategies, international support, and the engagement of local groups.
The recent territorial gains by Syrian rebel forces signify a pivotal moment in an ongoing conflict that has persisted for nearly 14 years. With the conflict’s power dynamics shifting once more, this escalation raises questions about the future stability of Syria, the role of international actors, and the continued aspirations of various factions within this complex and multifaceted war. This development reinforces the notion that the civil war is far from resolution, with each faction striving for territorial and political dominance.
Original Source: www.nytimes.com
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